Message From the Markets Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: Does the performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities in the first quarter forecast that booming economic growth lies just ahead? Or might these market gains risk making April fools of those expecting a sharp economic acceleration?

Examining the relationships between markets and the economy, it appears that the message from the markets is that modest economic growth is likely to continue rather than accelerate.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Message From the Markets

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
April 1, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-155086 (Exp. 4/14)

10 Indicators to Watch for a Spring Slide in the Stock Market

Highlights: In each of the past three years, the stock market began a slide in the spring that lasted well into the summer months.

This week, we update the status of the 10 indicators we identified that foreshadowed the 10 – 19% declines in recent years.

On balance, the indicators do not yet point to a significant risk of a repeat of the 10 – 19% spring slide this year. But a more modest, 5 – 10% pullback is far from out of the question.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article 10 Indicators to Watch for a Spring Slide in the Stock Market

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
March 25, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-153211 (Exp. 3/14)

Growing Gap Between Health of Consumers and Businesses

Highlights: Business demand is now strengthening as consumer spending power slumps. While in each of the past four years, consumer discretionary sector stocks outperformed the more business-spending oriented industrial sector stocks by a wide margin, they have started to lose their leadership.

A stall in the strength of consumer-driven stocks may help to keep the stock market in a range around the current levels even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes in on a new all-time high.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Growing Gap Between Health of Consumers and Businesses

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
March 4, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-147244 (Exp. 3/14)

Investing in an Up-and-Down Market Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: The volatility and classic 5 – 15% pullbacks we have seen in each of the past few years is perfectly normal and very likely to be a recurring pattern in 2013.

There are several ways to benefit from market volatility and potentially enhance returns, including: more frequent tactical adjustments to portfolios, focusing on yield, using active management rather than passive indexing strategies, and increasing diversification by adding low-correlation investments.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Investing in an Up-and-Down Market

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
February 19, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-143433 (Exp. 2/14)

Investor’s Guide to the State of the Union Address

Highlights: President Obama’s State of the Union, scheduled for Tuesday, February 12, is unlikely to be a big market mover. However, two major themes that we will be listening for with potential market impacts: the fiscal cliff and energy independence.

Fiscal cliff-related comments hold potential consequences for defense, consumer discretionary, and high dividend-paying stocks.

Comments on energy independence could lead to a bounce in clean energy stocks that soon fades. Talk of the elimination of tax breaks for the exploration and production companies in the energy sector could act as a negative.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Investor’s Guide to the State of the Union Address

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
February 11, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-141165 (Exp. 2/14)

Seeing Shadows Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: This Groundhog Day, when looking at the Dow, we are seeing shadows of what took place in each of the past three years as a new milestone was reached. It took the better part of a year for the market to break free of a period of ups and downs after reaching the milestone before beginning to move toward the next one.

That pattern may be repeated this year; however, the bull market is not likely to be over. If so, stocks would be ending a bull market with the S&P 500 priced at the lowest multiple of earnings for a bull market peak since WWII.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Seeing Shadows

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
February 4, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-138851 (Exp. 2/14)

Still Waiting for the Bonds-to-Stocks Rotation

Highlights: Stock mutual funds have seen inflows each week so far this year, providing some evidence that investors are finally favoring stocks after years of selling. However, the details of the data reveal that the money is not going to U.S. stock funds and not coming from bonds.

A long-term rotation from bonds to stocks is likely to begin sometime this year, but those claiming that it is already underway are premature and may be in for disappointment if they expect the stock market rally to continue each week in the months ahead.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Still Waiting for the Bonds-to-Stocks Rotation

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
January 28, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-136686 (Exp. 1/14)

Same Europe, Different Crisis Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: This week’s European finance ministers’ meeting is a reminder that each spring for the past three years, U.S. stocks have started a slide of about 10% during the second quarter, led by events in Europe.

In 2012, the European fear gauge was the rise in southern European bond yields as the financial crisis worsened. In 2013, it is northern European bond yields falling as the economic crisis worsens.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Same Europe, Different Crisis

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
January 21, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-134949 (Exp. 1/14)

Consulting the Crystal Ball Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: We are often asked about market clichés like the “January Effect” or the “Super Bowl indicator” during this time of the year.  When people feel there is a situation that is too complicated, they often fall back on rules of thumb to make decisions. But when enough of us rely on them, it can have real repercussions.

However, on balance, these time-worn axioms support our outlook for a modest gain for stocks in 2013* and may provide some comfort to nervous investors.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Consulting the Crystal Ball

 

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
January 14, 2013

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-132494 (Exp. 1/14)

Standing on the Edge Weekly Market Commentary

Highlights: Confidence has gone over the cliff, but economic activity remains on solid ground — leaving investors standing on the edge.  If fears are realized, we expect economic activity to fall and a recession to take place in 2013.

The debt ceiling may be another fiscal cliff that may weigh on consumer and business confidence and increasingly affect economic activity in the first quarter of 2013.

Download the full Weekly Market Commentary article Standing on the Edge

Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA

Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial
December 31, 2012

LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Tracking #1-128866 (Exp. 12/13)